By Lesiba Machaka
John Steenhuisen’s withdrawal from the Democratic Alliance’s leadership race has reignited debate about the party’s direction inside South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU), with analysts suggesting the move reflects deeper internal pressures rather than a simple change of heart.
Phapano Phasha, Chairperson of The Alternative Political and Economic Thought Research Institute, describes Steenhuisen’s exit as a calculated decision shaped by mounting political risk. “John Steenhuisen’s withdrawal is almost certainly a pre-emptive move to avoid a damaging and potentially unsuccessful leadership contest,” she said. “It was driven by a convergence of financial scandals, internal factional pressure, and external donor dissatisfaction.”
According to Phasha, resistance within the party played a decisive role, particularly from factions uneasy with Steenhuisen’s leadership style and policy direction within the GNU. “Insiders report he was pushed by a faction aligned with Helen Zille unhappy with his policies within the Government of National Unity,” she added. “His move is better seen as a calculation to preserve his remaining influence, including his ministerial post, and party stability by exiting before being forced out or defeated.”
Steenhuisen’s decision has also exposed the DA’s strategic dilemma as a governing partner. While participation in the GNU has delivered executive influence, it has constrained the party’s ability to function as a robust opposition force. “The DA has been trapped in a no-win situation,” Phasha said. “Its ministers are bound by cabinet collective responsibility, which muzzles public criticism of the ANC. This has blurred the DA’s identity and made it seem complicit.”
She argues that separating party leadership from cabinet participation could allow the DA to regain political clarity. “By separating the party leadership from the cabinet, the DA can now run a ‘good cop, bad cop’ operation,” Phasha explained. “The new party leader can reclaim the role of assertive opposition, publicly holding the ANC accountable, while DA ministers continue their work within government.”
The leadership race that follows Steenhuisen’s exit is therefore expected to define more than just who leads the party. “This forces a redefinition of the party’s platform,” Phasha said. “The campaign to elect a new leader will be a referendum on the party’s future direction within the GNU and whether it pivots toward a classical liberal critic.”
She cautioned, however, that this strategic shift carries risks. “The gamble is whether they can criticise the government forcefully enough to win back voters without collapsing the GNU itself,” she said.
Reflecting on Steenhuisen’s tenure, Phasha described his legacy as deeply contradictory. “Steenhuisen’s legacy is the paradox of incumbency,” she said. “He gained a seat at the cabinet table but lost the clear, oppositional voice that defined and grew the DA.”
She noted that the party now finds itself politically exposed. “The DA is politically vulnerable, having transitioned from a clear opposition force to a compromised party of incumbency,” she said. “By joining the GNU, the DA surrendered the protest vote against the ANC while simultaneously alienating parts of its right flank, pushing some voters toward parties like the Freedom Front Plus.”
Phasha’s analysis extends beyond party politics to broader questions of governance and state capacity, particularly in rural and agricultural contexts. She has previously warned that recurring crises such as Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreaks represent failures of institutional oversight rather than isolated incidents, eroding public confidence in the state and threatening livelihoods.
These concerns are underscored by recent developments in the Western Cape, where the provincial government has intensified its response to the national FMD outbreak. In a joint media release issued on 8 February 2026, Premier Alan Winde and Western Cape Minister of Agriculture, Economic Development and Tourism Dr Ivan Meyer announced that the province has set aside R100 million to procure vaccines and strengthen containment measures.
“We are acting swiftly with all stakeholders to get ahead of this outbreak,” Winde said, confirming that 24/7 border controls are already in place, with consideration being given to stricter permit systems and possible border closures. Movement of animals in outbreak areas has been prohibited, while veterinary services have accelerated surveillance, vaccination and traceability efforts.
The department confirmed several confirmed and suspected cases across areas including Gouda, Mbekweni, George, Mossel Bay, Mfuleni, Makhaza and Kalkfontein, with vaccination programmes already underway. Officials stressed that while Foot-and-Mouth Disease does not affect humans, it poses a severe threat to livestock, rural livelihoods and national food security.
As the DA prepares for a leadership contest that could redefine its political posture, the broader challenge highlighted by analysts remains the same: rebuilding public trust in political leadership while demonstrating the state’s ability to manage crises that directly affect citizens’ lives.
